# Welt Research

> Welt is a collection of groundbreaking AI models for tables. Prediction walkthroughs on 107 real datasets, and guides to using the collection from Python or your AI assistant.

Welt is a collection of foundation models for tables by Ergodic. Agents use it through the hosted MCP server (https://welt.ergodic.dev/mcp), the welt CLI, the Python SDK (pip install "welt-client[parquet]") or the REST API. Product docs for agents: https://welt.ergodic.dev/llms.txt

## Articles

- [Welt: A Collection of Groundbreaking Models](https://ergodic.dev/research/articles/welt-a-collection-of-groundbreaking-models): All the models you need in one table.
- [How Welt Works](https://ergodic.dev/research/articles/how-welt-works): Five short steps through the collection, each with a tiny example, the code and a notebook that opens in Colab.
- [Get Started with Welt](https://ergodic.dev/research/articles/get-started-with-welt): Connect Welt to your AI assistant or to Python, make your first prediction on a real table, then pick the guide for what you want to do next.
- [Connect Welt to Claude, ChatGPT and Your AI Assistant](https://ergodic.dev/research/articles/connect-welt-to-your-ai-assistant): Add Welt's MCP server to Claude, ChatGPT, Claude Code, Codex, Cursor or VS Code, sign in once, and ask your assistant to run Welt's models on your data.
- [Predict with Your Own Table](https://ergodic.dev/research/articles/guide-predict-with-your-own-table): Train on your own labelled table and check it on rows it hasn't seen. You choose the task and name the target, so Welt never guesses either.
- [Predict a Number](https://ergodic.dev/research/articles/guide-predict-a-number): Fit a Regressor on real Yacht data and measure its errors on held-out rows.
- [Compare Models with Cross-Validation](https://ergodic.dev/research/articles/guide-compare-models-with-cross-validation): Cross-validate several models on your table and rank them, with a leaderboard, per-fold metrics, out-of-fold predictions and a shareable report.
- [Compare Four Tabular Foundation Models in One Call](https://ergodic.dev/research/articles/compare-four-tabular-foundation-models): Cross-validate TabICLv2, Kumo Tabular Medium, TabDPT 1.3 and Mitra-v2 on the same folds with one client.evaluate call, then fit the top-ranked model.
- [Reuse a Fitted Predictor](https://ergodic.dev/research/articles/guide-reuse-a-fitted-predictor): Fit once, then predict on new rows later with the same predictor, without uploading training data or fitting again.
- [Discover a Causal Graph](https://ergodic.dev/research/articles/guide-causal-discovery): Discover a causal graph from an observational table with a qualified model, then read its native edges and scores.
- [From a Table to an Effect: Discover in Welt, Estimate in Ergodic](https://ergodic.dev/research/articles/discover-in-welt-estimate-in-ergodic): Learn a candidate causal graph from a small table in Welt, then test whether it answers your question and estimate the effect in Ergodic.
- [Find and Load Research Datasets](https://ergodic.dev/research/articles/guide-research-datasets): Search Welt's research catalogue for a real table, inspect its schema and load it into a DataFrame or save it as a file.
- [Run Welt from the CLI or an Agent](https://ergodic.dev/research/articles/guide-welt-cli-for-agents): Run Welt from a terminal, a script or an AI agent. Every successful command prints one JSON value you can parse.
- [What Does 70% Mean? How to Score a Probabilistic Prediction](https://ergodic.dev/research/articles/what-seventy-percent-means): A plain guide to Brier score, log loss and calibration, with worked arithmetic, common misreadings and why accuracy alone misleads.
- [Small Tables, Real Decisions: A Brief for Public-Sector Analysts](https://ergodic.dev/research/articles/policy-brief-small-tables): What tabular foundation models can and can't do on small public tables, and what to ask before procuring an AI forecast.

## Use cases

- [Every use case, grouped by area](use-cases/index.html)
- [Will This Customer Churn?](use-cases/will-this-customer-churn.html): Score every customer's chance of cancelling, using the best model in the collection for your table.
- [How Much Will Each Store Sell in the Next Two Weeks?](use-cases/how-much-will-we-sell.html): Forecast the next 14 days for every store at once, with a range around each day.
- [How Many Will This Machine Sell Today?](use-cases/machine-product-sales.html): Given the day, the weather, holidays, the temperature and whether the product was in stock, how many will sell from this machine?
- [Is This Client a Restaurant or a Shop?](use-cases/wholesale-client-type.html): From a year of spending on fresh food, milk, groceries, frozen goods, detergents and delicatessen, is this client a hotel or restaurant, or a retailer?
- [What Should This Camera Cost?](use-cases/camera-price.html): From its release year, resolution, zoom, focus range, storage, weight and size, what price does this camera's spec suggest?
- [What Should This Car Cost?](use-cases/car-price.html): From its make, body style, dimensions, engine and fuel economy, what price does this car's spec suggest?
- [Which Credit Score Band Is This Customer In?](use-cases/credit-score-band.html): From income, accounts, loans, payment delays and debt, is this customer's credit score poor, standard or good?
- [What Credit Rating Will This Company Get?](use-cases/corporate-credit-rating.html): From a handful of financial ratios and its size, which rating class is this company likely to get?
- [Will This Small-Business Loan Be Repaid?](use-cases/sba-loan-default.html): From the bank, the industry, the term, the jobs supported and the government guarantee, will this SBA-backed loan default?
- [Will This Home-Equity Loan Default?](use-cases/home-equity-default.html): From the loan amount, the property value, the borrower's job and their credit history, will this home-equity loan go bad?
- [Will This Personal Loan Be Paid Back?](use-cases/personal-loan-default.html): From the loan's purpose, grade, amount and rate and the borrower's income and employment, will it default?
- [Which Risk Grade Will the Bank Give This Loan?](use-cases/bank-loan-risk-grade.html): From the loan, its guarantee and collateral and the household's finances, which of five risk grades does the bank assign?
- [Will This Company Go Bankrupt Within Three Years?](use-cases/company-bankruptcy.html): From 64 financial ratios in its accounts, will this Polish company go bankrupt in the next three years?
- [Should the Auditors Look at This Firm?](use-cases/audit-risk-firm.html): From its sector, location, the discrepancies found and its history, is this firm high-risk?
- [Where Could Bitcoin's Price Go in the Next Two Weeks?](use-cases/crypto-price-forecast.html): From each coin's daily closing price, what range could Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin trade in over the next 14 days?
- [Will US Unemployment Be Higher in Three Months?](use-cases/will-unemployment-rise.html): Turn a forecast of a public series into the probability a forecasting question asks for.
- [What Will This Bengaluru Home Sell For?](use-cases/bengaluru-home-price.html): Given the area type, location, size, square footage, bathrooms and balconies, what's a fair price?
- [What's a Fair Rent for This Munich Flat?](use-cases/munich-rent.html): From living area, year built, location, bathroom, kitchen, heating and district, what net rent does this flat command?
- [What's a Typical Home Worth in This California Neighbourhood?](use-cases/california-house-value.html): From income, housing age, rooms, population and location, what is the median house value in this block group?
- [What Property Tax Rate Will This City Charge?](use-cases/property-tax-rate.html): From the state, the population, the median home value and household income, what's the effective property tax rate in this US city?
- [What Should This Riga Flat Be Listed At?](use-cases/riga-flat-price.html): From the offer type, district, rooms, area, floor and building type, what's a sensible listing price?
- [What's This Dubai Apartment Worth?](use-cases/dubai-apartment-price.html): From the neighbourhood, size, rooms and a long list of amenities, what price does this apartment's listing suggest?
- [How Much Is a Home Near a Metro Station Worth?](use-cases/taipei-price-per-area.html): From the sale date, the building's age, the distance to the nearest MRT station, the number of shops nearby and the location, what's the price per unit area?
- [Is This Patient at Risk of Heart Disease?](use-cases/is-this-patient-at-risk.html): Get a reliable risk score from a few hundred patient records, and know which model to trust.
- [Does This Patient Have Gum Disease?](use-cases/periodontal-diagnosis.html): Can lifestyle, hygiene habits and dental indices flag periodontal disease before a full examination?
- [Does This Eye Scan Show Diabetic Retinopathy?](use-cases/diabetic-retinopathy.html): From features measured on a retinal image, does this patient show signs of diabetic retinopathy?
- [Does This Patient Have an Underactive Thyroid?](use-cases/hypothyroid.html): From age, sex, medication history and thyroid test results, does this patient have hypothyroidism?
- [Is This Baby's Heart Trace Healthy?](use-cases/fetal-health.html): From the measurements of a cardiotocography trace, is the baby's health normal, suspect or pathological?
- [Is This Breast Biopsy Malignant?](use-cases/breast-cytology.html): From nine cell characteristics scored by a pathologist, is this fine-needle biopsy malignant or benign?
- [Is This Mammogram Mass Malignant?](use-cases/mammogram-mass.html): From the radiologist's BI-RADS assessment, the patient's age and the mass's shape, margin and density, is it malignant?
- [What Will Medicare Pay for This Hospital Stay?](use-cases/medicare-hospital-payment.html): For a given diagnosis group and hospital, what is Medicare's average payment per stay?
- [How Well Will This Person's Kidneys Work in Four Years?](use-cases/kidney-function.html): From a 2011 kidney test, blood fat levels, diabetes, blood pressure and lifestyle, what will this person's kidney function be in 2015?
- [How Many COVID-19 Cases Will a Country Report Next Month?](use-cases/covid-cases-forecast.html): From each country's daily history, how many new cases will France, Germany and Italy report over the next four weeks?
- [Are This Person's Eyes Open or Closed?](use-cases/eeg-eye-state.html): From 14 EEG electrode readings, are the person's eyes open or closed?
- [How Many COVID-19 Doses Will This Person Have Taken?](use-cases/vaccine-uptake-survey.html): Which attitudes and circumstances go with lower vaccine uptake?
- [Is It a Mammal, a Bird or a Fish?](use-cases/zoo-animal-class.html): From simple yes-or-no traits like hair, feathers, eggs, milk and number of legs, which class does this animal belong to?
- [Where in the Cell Does This Protein Go?](use-cases/yeast-protein-location.html): From eight scores computed from its sequence, which part of the yeast cell does this protein end up in?
- [Will This Snail Choose to Mate?](use-cases/snail-mating.html): Given the species, populations, shell sizes and trial conditions, will a male periwinkle snail mount the female he's paired with?
- [Will Whooping Cranes Stop Here?](use-cases/whooping-crane-stopover.html): From the mix of wetland, cropland and grassland around a spot, will migrating whooping cranes use it as a stopover?
- [What Is This Squirrel Doing?](use-cases/red-squirrel-behaviour.html): From a collar's acceleration and temperature readings, is the squirrel feeding, travelling, grooming or resting?
- [Will This Tree Survive to the Next Survey?](use-cases/tree-survival.html): Given its size, its condition last time, its species and how well the climate suits it, will this tree still be alive at the next forest inventory?
- [Which Forest Grows on This Patch of Land?](use-cases/forest-cover-type.html): From elevation, slope, distance to water and roads, wilderness area and soil type, which type of forest covers this 30-metre patch of Colorado?
- [Which Variety Is This Dry Bean?](use-cases/dry-bean-variety.html): From the size and shape measured in a photograph, which of seven varieties is this bean?
- [Is This Rice Grain Cammeo or Osmancik?](use-cases/rice-variety.html): From seven measurements of its shape in a photograph, which of two Turkish rice varieties is this grain?
- [Is This Raisin Kecimen or Besni?](use-cases/raisin-variety.html): From seven size and shape measurements, which of two raisin varieties grown in Turkey is this one?
- [Is This Wheat Short of Water?](use-cases/wheat-water-stress.html): From texture features of a chlorophyll fluorescence image, how water-stressed is this wheat plant?
- [How Good Will Tasters Say This Wine Is?](use-cases/white-wine-quality.html): From acidity, sugar, sulphur, alcohol and other lab measurements, what score will a tasting panel give this white wine?
- [Is This Jar of Spread Contaminated?](use-cases/cocoa-jar-contamination.html): From 30 sensor measurements taken on the line, does this jar of cocoa-hazelnut spread contain a foreign body?
- [How Much Will This District Harvest?](use-cases/tamil-nadu-crop.html): Given the crop, the season, the year and the area planted, how much will a district in Tamil Nadu produce?
- [How Much CO2 Will Mauna Loa Measure Next Year?](use-cases/mauna-loa-co2.html): Given every weekly reading since the 1970s, what will the CO2 level at Mauna Loa be over the next 52 weeks?
- [How Warm Is the Pacific at This Buoy?](use-cases/pacific-sea-temperature.html): From the buoy's position, the date, the winds and the humidity, what is the sea surface temperature?
- [How Much Water Will This Soil Hold?](use-cases/soil-water-content.html): From its sand, silt and clay, organic carbon, density, pH and depth, how much water does this soil hold at field capacity?
- [How Far Off Is the Temperature Forecast?](use-cases/weather-forecast-correction.html): How wrong will the national weather model's temperature forecast for Aarhus be, and in which direction?
- [How Windy Is It at This Irish Station?](use-cases/irish-wind-speed.html): If you know today's wind speed at eleven weather stations across Ireland, what is it at the twelfth?
- [How Murky Is the Water at the Bottom of the Canyon?](use-cases/canyon-turbidity.html): From currents, temperature, pressure and the weather at the surface, how cloudy is the water deep in Barkley Canyon?
- [How Polluted Is Beijing's Air This Hour?](use-cases/beijing-air-pollution.html): From the dew point, temperature, pressure, wind, snow and rain, how much fine particulate matter is in Beijing's air?
- [How High Will Ozone Climb in Los Angeles Today?](use-cases/la-ozone.html): From the date and the morning's weather readings, what will the day's maximum ozone level be in Los Angeles?
- [What's on the Ground in This Part of Ouagadougou?](use-cases/urban-land-cover.html): From its Sentinel-2 satellite bands, is this spot in Ouagadougou buildings, roads, bare soil, vegetation or water?
- [What Land Does This Satellite Pixel Show?](use-cases/satellite-land-cover.html): From the four spectral bands of a small patch of Landsat image, is it red soil, cotton crop, grey soil, damp soil, vegetation stubble or very damp soil?
- [What Load Is the Steel Plant Running?](use-cases/steel-plant-load-type.html): Is the plant running a light, medium or maximum load right now?
- [How Much Power Will Tetouan Draw?](use-cases/tetouan-power-demand.html): Given the temperature, humidity, wind and sunlight, how much power will zone 1 of Tetouan use?
- [How Much Sunlight Will Reach the Panels?](use-cases/solar-radiation.html): From the time of day, temperature, pressure, humidity and wind, how much solar radiation is reaching the ground?
- [Is This Smart Grid Stable?](use-cases/smart-grid-stability.html): With these reaction times, power balances and price responses, will a four-node smart grid stay stable?
- [How Much Electricity Did Spain Use Today?](use-cases/spain-daily-electricity.html): From how much each type of power station generated, what was Spain's total electricity use that day?
- [What Will Electricity Cost Tomorrow, Half-Hour by Half-Hour?](use-cases/electricity-price-forecast.html): From the recent price history, what will the next 48 half-hourly electricity prices be?
- [How Much NOx Is the Gas Turbine Emitting?](use-cases/gas-turbine-nox.html): From the weather and the turbine's operating readings, how much nitrogen oxide is the plant putting out?
- [How Much Steam Is the Boiler Making?](use-cases/boiler-steam-flow.html): From the feed water flow, temperature and pressure, how much steam is the refinery boiler producing?
- [How Much Energy Are This Home's Appliances Using?](use-cases/appliance-energy-use.html): From room-by-room temperature and humidity and the weather outside, how much energy are the appliances in this house drawing?
- [What Will This Yacht's Resistance Be?](use-cases/predict-a-number.html): Predict a number from a small table of measurements, with no training and no tuning.
- [What State Is the Shuttle's System In?](use-cases/shuttle-sensor-state.html): From nine sensor readings, which operating state is the system in?
- [Will This Machine Fail?](use-cases/machine-failure.html): Given its temperatures, speed, torque and tool wear, is this milling machine about to fail?
- [How Long Has This Engine Got Left?](use-cases/engine-remaining-life.html): How many more cycles can this jet engine run before it needs attention?
- [How Badly Would an Earthquake Damage This Building?](use-cases/earthquake-building-damage.html): From its age, height, footprint, materials and use, which damage grade is this building likely to reach in an earthquake?
- [How Should the F-16's Ailerons Move?](use-cases/aileron-control.html): Given the aircraft's current state, what aileron command would the pilot give next?
- [Is This School Bus Broken Down or Just Late?](use-cases/nyc-school-bus-delays.html): From the reason given, the route, the run type, the borough and the bus company, is this incident a breakdown or a delay?
- [How Badly Will People Be Hurt in This Crash?](use-cases/crash-injury-severity.html): From seat-belt use, ejection, seating position and other crash details, how severe were the injuries?
- [Is That Sonar Echo a Mine or a Rock?](use-cases/sonar-mine-or-rock.html): From the energy in 60 frequency bands of a sonar return, did the pulse bounce off a metal cylinder or a rock?
- [Is This a Bus, a Van or a Car?](use-cases/vehicle-silhouette.html): From 18 measurements of its silhouette, is this vehicle a double-decker bus, a van, or one of two car models?
- [Which Phase of a Gesture Is the Hand In?](use-cases/gesture-phase.html): From the velocity and acceleration of the hands and wrists, is the speaker resting, preparing a gesture, making the stroke, holding it or returning?
- [Which Wave Made This Noisy Signal?](use-cases/noisy-waveform.html): Each signal is a blend of two of three simple wave shapes with random noise added. From its 21 values, which of the three classes produced it?
- [Which Digit Is This Faulty Display Showing?](use-cases/led-digit.html): Each of the seven segments on this display is on or off, and some are flipped by mistake. Which digit was it meant to show?
- [Is This Telescope Flash a Gamma Ray?](use-cases/gamma-ray-telescope.html): Did this flash of light in the telescope come from a gamma ray or from ordinary cosmic-ray noise?
- [Is This Collision a Higgs Boson?](use-cases/higgs-boson-signal.html): Does this simulated collision contain a Higgs boson, or is it background that only looks similar?
- [Is This Detector Event a Neutrino?](use-cases/neutrino-event-signal.html): Was this flash in the MiniBooNE detector caused by the electron neutrino the experiment was looking for?
- [How Well Will This Compound Dissolve in Water?](use-cases/aqueous-solubility.html): From descriptors computed from its structure, what is this compound's solubility in water?
- [Is This Glass from a Building Window?](use-cases/glass-type.html): From its refractive index and oxide contents, is this glass fragment the most common type, building window glass?
- [Which Way Will the Scale Tip?](use-cases/balance-scale.html): Given the weight and distance on each side, does the scale tip left, tip right or balance?
- [How Will This Student Finish the Course?](use-cases/student-final-performance.html): From earlier marks and study habits, family support and wellbeing, which performance class will this postgraduate student end up in?
- [Did This Really Happen, or Was It Imagined?](use-cases/recalled-or-imagined-story.html): From the writer's ratings, the time they took and the event they described, is this story a real memory, an imagined one or a retelling?
- [Which Sentence Answers the Question?](use-cases/reading-relevance.html): From how a reader's eyes moved over a word, is it irrelevant, relevant, or part of the answer they were looking for?
- [Which Heuristic Will Prove This Theorem Fastest?](use-cases/theorem-proving-heuristic.html): A theorem prover has several search heuristics, and the right one depends on the problem. Picking it from the problem's features before the search starts can save hours of compute.?
- [How Well Will This Optimiser Do on a New Problem?](use-cases/optimiser-performance.html): Before running an expensive optimiser, can you predict how well it will do from the landscape of the problem?
- [How Long Will the Solver Take to Tidy This Container Yard?](use-cases/container-solver-runtime.html): Before a port's planner runs a solver to reorder its stacked containers, can it tell how long the solver will take?
- [Is This Website a Phishing Site?](use-cases/phishing-website.html): From 30 features of its URL, page content and outside services, is this website trying to steal logins?
- [Is This Email Spam?](use-cases/spam-email.html): From how often certain words and characters appear and how long its runs of capitals are, is this email spam?
- [How Badly Does This Java Class Need Refactoring?](use-cases/code-smell-severity.html): From size and complexity metrics, how severe is this class's data-class smell, a class that holds data but does little with it?
- [Will This Kaggle Dataset Win a Medal?](use-cases/kaggle-dataset-medal.html): From its usability score, files, size, keywords, views, downloads and dates, which medal will this dataset get, if any?
- [Is This Part of the Page Text, a Picture or a Line?](use-cases/page-layout-blocks.html): From the shape of a block on a scanned page and how much black ink it holds, is it text, a horizontal line, a graphic, a vertical line or a picture?
- [Who Wins from This Connect Four Position?](use-cases/connect-four-outcome.html): From the 42 cells of the board, does the first player win, lose or draw with perfect play?
- [Will the Blue Team Win This League of Legends Match?](use-cases/league-of-legends-win.html): From gold, minions, levels, kills and objectives at the 15-minute mark, will the blue team win?
- [Will We Win This Overwatch Match?](use-cases/overwatch-match-result.html): From the season, map, role, characters and both teams' skill ratings before the match, will this game be won?
- [Which League Does This StarCraft II Player Belong In?](use-cases/starcraft-league.html): From actions per minute, hotkey use, reaction cycles and hours played, which league is this player in?
- [Is This Pokémon Legendary?](use-cases/pokemon-legendary.html): From its types, base stats, size, capture rate and egg steps, is this Pokémon legendary?
- [What Will Critics Score This 3DS Game?](use-cases/3ds-metacritic-score.html): From user ratings, playtime, ownership counts, tags and genres, what Metacritic score did this Nintendo 3DS game get?
- [What Position Does This Footballer Play?](use-cases/football-player-position.html): From age, height and per-match statistics, does this player play as a goalkeeper, defender, midfielder or forward?
- [What Will This Film Score on IMDb?](use-cases/imdb-rating.html): From its year, genre, runtime, votes, box office, Metascore and director, what IMDb rating did this film get?
- [How Will Viewers Rate This Anime?](use-cases/anime-rating.html): From its media type, episodes, years, studio, content warnings and viewing counts, what average rating does this title get on Anime-Planet?

## Questions

- What is Welt? Welt is a collection of groundbreaking AI models built for tables, from labs including Inria, Amazon, Kumo and Mistral AI. Give one your spreadsheet and ask a question: who's likely to leave, what sales will look like next month, what's driving a result. You get an answer in minutes, with nothing to train.
- Which models are in the Welt collection? TabICLv2, Kumo Tabular Medium, Mitra-v2 and TabDPT 1.3 predict a category or a number. Chronos-2 and Timestral forecast what comes next. Arrow, CDFM and AVICI find cause and effect. More models, including Welt's own, are joining next.
- Do I need to train or tune anything? No. These models have already learned from millions of tables, so they read your rows as examples and predict straight away. There's no training run and nothing to tune.
- Can I use Welt from Claude or ChatGPT? Yes. Add https://welt.ergodic.dev/mcp to Claude, ChatGPT, Cursor or Codex as a custom connector, sign in once in your browser, and ask in plain English. Your assistant runs the models for you.
- How do I get started? With no code, connect your AI assistant. In Python, run pip install "welt-client[parquet]", then welt login. Or open a ready notebook in Google Colab from the Welt docs at https://ergodic-ai.github.io/welt-python/.