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Is This Client a Restaurant or a Shop?

From a year of spending on fresh food, milk, groceries, frozen goods, detergents and delicatessen, is this client a hotel or restaurant, or a retailer? Getting the channel right decides which sales team calls.

Use caseCustomersPredictionModel evaluation

The table

440 clients of a Portuguese wholesaler with annual spending by product category and region, labelled Horeca or Retail. It's in Welt's research catalogue as Wholesale Customers Annual Spending, 440 rows by 9 columns, licensed CC BY 4.0. The catalogue measures its signal at 0.83. At 440 rows and 8 features, TabICLv2, Kumo Tabular Medium, Mitra-v2 and TabDPT 1.3 take the table as it is.

Walkthrough

  1. Load it from the catalogue

    Find the table, read its recorded target and print the column names.

    import pandas as pd
    from welt import Client
    
    with Client() as client:
        item = client.research_datasets(q="wholesale customers annual spending", limit=1)["items"][0]
        info = client.research_dataset(item["id"])
        data = client.load_research_dataset(item["id"])
    
    target = info["targets"][0]
    target = target["name"] if isinstance(target, dict) else target
    print([column["name"] for column in info["schema"]], target)
  2. Pick the rows

    Set aside 20 rows to predict at the end, and keep the rest for the models to learn from.

    known = data.dropna(subset=[target])
    new_rows = known.sample(20, random_state=1)
    table = known.drop(new_rows.index)
  3. Compare the models and predict

    The models compete on the same folds against a simple guess, then the top-ranked one is fitted on the whole table. ROC AUC runs from 0.5, a coin toss, to 1, a perfect ranking, and a lower Brier score means the probabilities can be trusted more. The last table puts each prediction next to the real answer.

    with Client() as client:
        evaluation = client.evaluate(table, target, task="classification", seed=7,
                                     models=["tabicl-v2", "kumo-medium", "mitra-v2", "tabdpt-1.3"])
        model = evaluation.fit()
    
    print(evaluation.summary()[["name", "rank", "roc_auc_mean", "brier_mean"]])
    features = new_rows.drop(columns=target)
    print(pd.DataFrame({"actual": new_rows[target].values, "predicted": model.predict(features),
                        "probability": model.predict_proba(features).max(axis=1)}))

What you get

A channel per clientWith a probability.
Better targetingRoute each client to the right team.
Small data handled440 rows suit every model in the collection.

Try it

Use Open with to run the research datasets notebook in Colab, Kaggle or Jupyter and search for "wholesale customers annual spending", or run the code above after pip install "welt-client[parquet]".