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How Windy Is It at This Irish Station?

If you know today's wind speed at eleven weather stations across Ireland, what is it at the twelfth? Filling in one site from its neighbours is how wind farm planners estimate places without a mast.

Use caseClimatePredictionModel evaluation

The table

Daily average wind speeds at twelve Irish weather stations over 18 years, with the date. It's in Welt's research catalogue as Wind 503 Regression, 6,574 rows by 15 columns, licensed StatLib. The catalogue measures its signal at 0.77. At 6,574 rows and 14 features, TabICLv2 and Kumo Tabular Medium take the table as it is. The others can't take a table this size, so the walkthrough leaves them out.

Walkthrough

  1. Load it from the catalogue

    Find the table, read its recorded target and print the column names.

    import pandas as pd
    from welt import Client
    
    with Client() as client:
        item = client.research_datasets(q="wind 503", limit=1)["items"][0]
        info = client.research_dataset(item["id"])
        data = client.load_research_dataset(item["id"])
    
    target = info["targets"][0]
    target = target["name"] if isinstance(target, dict) else target
    print([column["name"] for column in info["schema"]], target)
  2. Pick the rows

    Set aside 20 rows to predict at the end, and keep the rest for the models to learn from.

    known = data.dropna(subset=[target])
    new_rows = known.sample(20, random_state=1)
    table = known.drop(new_rows.index)
  3. Compare the models and predict

    The models compete on the same folds against a simple guess, then the top-ranked one is fitted on the whole table. RMSE and MAE are average errors in the target's own units, so lower is better. The last table puts each prediction next to the real answer.

    with Client() as client:
        evaluation = client.evaluate(table, target, task="regression", seed=7,
                                     models=["tabicl-v2", "kumo-medium"])
        model = evaluation.fit()
    
    print(evaluation.summary()[["name", "rank", "rmse_mean", "mae_mean"]])
    features = new_rows.drop(columns=target)
    print(pd.DataFrame({"actual": new_rows[target].values, "predicted": model.predict(features)}))

What you get

A wind speed per dayEstimated from the neighbouring stations.
A site without a mastThe same approach estimates places with no measurements.
A strong signalThe catalogue measures a high signal.

Try it

Use Open with to run the research datasets notebook in Colab, Kaggle or Jupyter and search for "wind 503", or run the code above after pip install "welt-client[parquet]".