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Is This Detector Event a Neutrino?

Was this flash in the MiniBooNE detector caused by the electron neutrino the experiment was looking for? The detector records far more background than signal, so a good filter decides what the physicists get to study.

Use caseSciencePredictionModel evaluation

The table

Events from the MiniBooNE neutrino experiment at Fermilab, each with 50 particle-identification measurements and a signal or background label. It's in Welt's research catalogue as MiniBooNE Particle Event Measurements, 130,064 rows by 51 columns, licensed CC0. The catalogue measures its signal at 0.77. At 130,064 rows and 50 features the table is larger than the model limits allow, so the walkthrough evaluates and fits on a seeded sample of 2,000 rows. TabICLv2 and Kumo Tabular Medium compete.

Walkthrough

  1. Load it from the catalogue

    Find the table, read its recorded target and print the column names.

    import pandas as pd
    from welt import Client
    
    with Client() as client:
        item = client.research_datasets(q="MiniBooNE particle", limit=1)["items"][0]
        info = client.research_dataset(item["id"])
        data = client.load_research_dataset(item["id"])
    
    target = info["targets"][0]
    target = target["name"] if isinstance(target, dict) else target
    print([column["name"] for column in info["schema"]], target)
  2. Pick the rows

    Set aside 20 rows to predict at the end. The models learn from a seeded sample of 2,000 of the rest, the most this table's width allows.

    known = data.dropna(subset=[target])
    new_rows = known.sample(20, random_state=1)
    table = known.drop(new_rows.index).sample(2000, random_state=7)
  3. Compare the models and predict

    The models compete on the same folds against a simple guess, then the top-ranked one is fitted on the whole table. ROC AUC runs from 0.5, a coin toss, to 1, a perfect ranking, and a lower Brier score means the probabilities can be trusted more. The last table puts each prediction next to the real answer.

    with Client() as client:
        evaluation = client.evaluate(table, target, task="classification", seed=7,
                                     models=["tabicl-v2", "kumo-medium"])
        model = evaluation.fit()
    
    print(evaluation.summary()[["name", "rank", "roc_auc_mean", "brier_mean"]])
    features = new_rows.drop(columns=target)
    print(pd.DataFrame({"actual": new_rows[target].values, "predicted": model.predict(features),
                        "probability": model.predict_proba(features).max(axis=1)}))

What you get

A probability per eventSort events from most to least signal-like.
Background removedSpend analysis time on the events that matter.
Wide tables handledFifty measurements go in without picking features first.

Try it

Use Open with to run the research datasets notebook in Colab, Kaggle or Jupyter and search for "MiniBooNE particle", or run the code above after pip install "welt-client[parquet]".