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Does This Eye Scan Show Diabetic Retinopathy?

From features measured on a retinal image, does this patient show signs of diabetic retinopathy? Screening programmes see far more images than specialists can grade by hand.

Use caseHealthcarePredictionModel evaluation

The table

Retinal images from the Messidor set, each with lesion counts, optic disc and image-quality features, and whether retinopathy was present. It's in Welt's research catalogue as Diabetic Retinopathy Debrecen, 1,151 rows by 20 columns, licensed CC BY 4.0. The catalogue measures its signal at 0.35. At 1,151 rows and 19 features, TabICLv2, Kumo Tabular Medium and Mitra-v2 take the table as it is. The others can't take a table this size, so the walkthrough leaves them out.

Walkthrough

  1. Load it from the catalogue

    Find the table, read its recorded target and print the column names.

    import pandas as pd
    from welt import Client
    
    with Client() as client:
        item = client.research_datasets(q="diabetic retinopathy Debrecen", limit=1)["items"][0]
        info = client.research_dataset(item["id"])
        data = client.load_research_dataset(item["id"])
    
    target = info["targets"][0]
    target = target["name"] if isinstance(target, dict) else target
    print([column["name"] for column in info["schema"]], target)
  2. Pick the rows

    Set aside 20 rows to predict at the end, and keep the rest for the models to learn from.

    known = data.dropna(subset=[target])
    new_rows = known.sample(20, random_state=1)
    table = known.drop(new_rows.index)
  3. Compare the models and predict

    The models compete on the same folds against a simple guess, then the top-ranked one is fitted on the whole table. ROC AUC runs from 0.5, a coin toss, to 1, a perfect ranking, and a lower Brier score means the probabilities can be trusted more. The last table puts each prediction next to the real answer.

    with Client() as client:
        evaluation = client.evaluate(table, target, task="classification", seed=7,
                                     models=["tabicl-v2", "kumo-medium", "mitra-v2"])
        model = evaluation.fit()
    
    print(evaluation.summary()[["name", "rank", "roc_auc_mean", "brier_mean"]])
    features = new_rows.drop(columns=target)
    print(pd.DataFrame({"actual": new_rows[target].values, "predicted": model.predict(features),
                        "probability": model.predict_proba(features).max(axis=1)}))

What you get

A probability per scanSend the likely cases to a specialist first.
An honest signalThe catalogue measures a modest signal, so check the baseline comparison.
Calibrated scoresThe Brier score shows whether the probabilities can be trusted.

Try it

Use Open with to run the research datasets notebook in Colab, Kaggle or Jupyter and search for "diabetic retinopathy Debrecen", or run the code above after pip install "welt-client[parquet]".