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Does This Patient Have Gum Disease?

Can lifestyle, hygiene habits and dental indices flag periodontal disease before a full examination? A clinic with a couple of hundred records wants a screening score it can trust.

Use caseHealthcarePredictionModel evaluation

The table

224 patients with 19 columns on lifestyle, oral hygiene, dental indices and teeth status, and a periodontal diagnosis. It's in Welt's research catalogue as French Dental and Lifestyle Records, 224 rows by 20 columns, licensed CC0. The catalogue measures its signal at 0.47. At 224 rows and 19 features, TabICLv2, Kumo Tabular Medium, Mitra-v2 and TabDPT 1.3 take the table as it is.

Walkthrough

  1. Load it from the catalogue

    Find the table, read its recorded target and print the column names.

    import pandas as pd
    from welt import Client
    
    with Client() as client:
        item = client.research_datasets(q="french dental lifestyle periodontal", limit=1)["items"][0]
        info = client.research_dataset(item["id"])
        data = client.load_research_dataset(item["id"])
    
    target = info["targets"][0]
    target = target["name"] if isinstance(target, dict) else target
    print([column["name"] for column in info["schema"]], target)
  2. Pick the rows

    Set aside 20 rows to predict at the end, and keep the rest for the models to learn from.

    known = data.dropna(subset=[target])
    new_rows = known.sample(20, random_state=1)
    table = known.drop(new_rows.index)
  3. Compare the models and predict

    The models compete on the same folds against a simple guess, then the top-ranked one is fitted on the whole table. ROC AUC runs from 0.5, a coin toss, to 1, a perfect ranking, and a lower Brier score means the probabilities can be trusted more. The last table puts each prediction next to the real answer.

    with Client() as client:
        evaluation = client.evaluate(table, target, task="classification", seed=7,
                                     models=["tabicl-v2", "kumo-medium", "mitra-v2", "tabdpt-1.3"])
        model = evaluation.fit()
    
    print(evaluation.summary()[["name", "rank", "roc_auc_mean", "brier_mean"]])
    features = new_rows.drop(columns=target)
    print(pd.DataFrame({"actual": new_rows[target].values, "predicted": model.predict(features),
                        "probability": model.predict_proba(features).max(axis=1)}))

What you get

A screening scoreA probability of gum disease for each patient.
Small data handledFoundation models are built for tables this size.
Ready to reportLeaderboard and calibration figures for a write-up.

Try it

Use Open with to run the research datasets notebook in Colab, Kaggle or Jupyter and search for "french dental lifestyle periodontal", or run the code above after pip install "welt-client[parquet]".