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How High Will Ozone Climb in Los Angeles Today?

From the date and the morning's weather readings, what will the day's maximum ozone level be in Los Angeles? Health warnings go out when it's likely to be high.

Use caseClimatePredictionModel evaluation

The table

Every day of 1976 in the Los Angeles basin, with calendar fields and meteorological readings, and the day's maximum ozone level. It's in Welt's research catalogue as Los Angeles Ozone Pollution Data (1976), 366 rows by 13 columns, licensed CC0. The catalogue measures its signal at 0.71. At 366 rows and 12 features, TabICLv2, Kumo Tabular Medium, Mitra-v2 and TabDPT 1.3 take the table as it is.

Walkthrough

  1. Load it from the catalogue

    Find the table, read its recorded target and print the column names.

    import pandas as pd
    from welt import Client
    
    with Client() as client:
        item = client.research_datasets(q="Los Angeles ozone 1976", limit=1)["items"][0]
        info = client.research_dataset(item["id"])
        data = client.load_research_dataset(item["id"])
    
    target = info["targets"][0]
    target = target["name"] if isinstance(target, dict) else target
    print([column["name"] for column in info["schema"]], target)
  2. Pick the rows

    Set aside 20 rows to predict at the end, and keep the rest for the models to learn from.

    known = data.dropna(subset=[target])
    new_rows = known.sample(20, random_state=1)
    table = known.drop(new_rows.index)
  3. Compare the models and predict

    The models compete on the same folds against a simple guess, then the top-ranked one is fitted on the whole table. RMSE and MAE are average errors in the target's own units, so lower is better. The last table puts each prediction next to the real answer.

    with Client() as client:
        evaluation = client.evaluate(table, target, task="regression", seed=7,
                                     models=["tabicl-v2", "kumo-medium", "mitra-v2", "tabdpt-1.3"])
        model = evaluation.fit()
    
    print(evaluation.summary()[["name", "rank", "rmse_mean", "mae_mean"]])
    features = new_rows.drop(columns=target)
    print(pd.DataFrame({"actual": new_rows[target].values, "predicted": model.predict(features)}))

What you get

A daily ozone estimateFrom readings available that morning.
Earlier warningsFlag days likely to cross the health limit.
Small data handledEvery model in the collection can take 366 rows.

Try it

Use Open with to run the research datasets notebook in Colab, Kaggle or Jupyter and search for "Los Angeles ozone 1976", or run the code above after pip install "welt-client[parquet]".