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What Should This Riga Flat Be Listed At?

From the offer type, district, rooms, area, floor and building type, what's a sensible listing price? A quick estimate helps an agent advise a seller on day one.

Use caseFinancePredictionModel evaluation

The table

4,219 Riga property listings with offer type, district, street, rooms, area, floor and building series, and the price. It's in Welt's research catalogue as Riga Real Estate Listings, 4,219 rows by 13 columns, licensed CC0: Public Domain. The catalogue measures its signal at 0.87. At 4,219 rows and 12 features, TabICLv2 and Kumo Tabular Medium take the table as it is. The others can't take a table this size, so the walkthrough leaves them out.

Walkthrough

  1. Load it from the catalogue

    Find the table, read its recorded target and print the column names.

    import pandas as pd
    from welt import Client
    
    with Client() as client:
        item = client.research_datasets(q="Riga real estate listings", limit=1)["items"][0]
        info = client.research_dataset(item["id"])
        data = client.load_research_dataset(item["id"])
    
    target = info["targets"][0]
    target = target["name"] if isinstance(target, dict) else target
    print([column["name"] for column in info["schema"]], target)
  2. Pick the rows

    Set aside 20 rows to predict at the end, and keep the rest for the models to learn from.

    known = data.dropna(subset=[target])
    new_rows = known.sample(20, random_state=1)
    table = known.drop(new_rows.index)
  3. Compare the models and predict

    The models compete on the same folds against a simple guess, then the top-ranked one is fitted on the whole table. RMSE and MAE are average errors in the target's own units, so lower is better. The last table puts each prediction next to the real answer.

    with Client() as client:
        evaluation = client.evaluate(table, target, task="regression", seed=7,
                                     models=["tabicl-v2", "kumo-medium"])
        model = evaluation.fit()
    
    print(evaluation.summary()[["name", "rank", "rmse_mean", "mae_mean"]])
    features = new_rows.drop(columns=target)
    print(pd.DataFrame({"actual": new_rows[target].values, "predicted": model.predict(features)}))

What you get

A listing priceFor any flat you can describe.
Sale or rentThe offer type is a column, so one model covers both.
A strong signalThe catalogue measures a high signal.

Try it

Use Open with to run the research datasets notebook in Colab, Kaggle or Jupyter and search for "Riga real estate listings", or run the code above after pip install "welt-client[parquet]".