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How Much Electricity Did Spain Use Today?

From how much each type of power station generated, what was Spain's total electricity use that day? A year of daily figures is a small table, which is where foundation models do well.

Use caseEnergyPredictionModel evaluation

The table

A year of daily figures for Spain in 2003, with energy from each generation source and the day's consumption. It's in Welt's research catalogue as Daily Electric Energy in Spain (2003), 365 rows by 7 columns, licensed CC0. The catalogue measures its signal at 0.83. At 365 rows and 6 features, TabICLv2, Kumo Tabular Medium, Mitra-v2 and TabDPT 1.3 take the table as it is.

Walkthrough

  1. Load it from the catalogue

    Find the table, read its recorded target and print the column names.

    import pandas as pd
    from welt import Client
    
    with Client() as client:
        item = client.research_datasets(q="daily electric energy Spain", limit=1)["items"][0]
        info = client.research_dataset(item["id"])
        data = client.load_research_dataset(item["id"])
    
    target = info["targets"][0]
    target = target["name"] if isinstance(target, dict) else target
    print([column["name"] for column in info["schema"]], target)
  2. Pick the rows

    Set aside 20 rows to predict at the end, and keep the rest for the models to learn from.

    known = data.dropna(subset=[target])
    new_rows = known.sample(20, random_state=1)
    table = known.drop(new_rows.index)
  3. Compare the models and predict

    The models compete on the same folds against a simple guess, then the top-ranked one is fitted on the whole table. RMSE and MAE are average errors in the target's own units, so lower is better. The last table puts each prediction next to the real answer.

    with Client() as client:
        evaluation = client.evaluate(table, target, task="regression", seed=7,
                                     models=["tabicl-v2", "kumo-medium", "mitra-v2", "tabdpt-1.3"])
        model = evaluation.fit()
    
    print(evaluation.summary()[["name", "rank", "rmse_mean", "mae_mean"]])
    features = new_rows.drop(columns=target)
    print(pd.DataFrame({"actual": new_rows[target].values, "predicted": model.predict(features)}))

What you get

A daily estimateConsumption from the generation mix.
Small data handled365 rows are enough for every model to compete.
A clear signalThe catalogue measures a strong signal.

Try it

Use Open with to run the research datasets notebook in Colab, Kaggle or Jupyter and search for "daily electric energy Spain", or run the code above after pip install "welt-client[parquet]".