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How Much Power Will Tetouan Draw?

Given the temperature, humidity, wind and sunlight, how much power will zone 1 of Tetouan use? A city utility plans its supply around exactly this number.

Use caseEnergyPredictionModel evaluation

The table

A year of readings every ten minutes from Tetouan in Morocco, with weather measurements and the power used in the city's first zone. It's in Welt's research catalogue as Power Consumption of Tetouan City, 52,416 rows by 7 columns, licensed CC BY 4.0. The catalogue measures its signal at 0.35. At 52,416 rows and 6 features the table is larger than the model limits allow, so the walkthrough evaluates and fits on a seeded sample of 8,000 rows. TabICLv2 and Kumo Tabular Medium compete.

Walkthrough

  1. Load it from the catalogue

    Find the table, read its recorded target and print the column names.

    import pandas as pd
    from welt import Client
    
    with Client() as client:
        item = client.research_datasets(q="power consumption Tetouan", limit=1)["items"][0]
        info = client.research_dataset(item["id"])
        data = client.load_research_dataset(item["id"])
    
    target = info["targets"][0]
    target = target["name"] if isinstance(target, dict) else target
    print([column["name"] for column in info["schema"]], target)
  2. Pick the rows

    Set aside 20 rows to predict at the end. The models learn from a seeded sample of 8,000 of the rest, the most this table's width allows.

    known = data.dropna(subset=[target])
    new_rows = known.sample(20, random_state=1)
    table = known.drop(new_rows.index).sample(8000, random_state=7)
  3. Compare the models and predict

    The models compete on the same folds against a simple guess, then the top-ranked one is fitted on the whole table. RMSE and MAE are average errors in the target's own units, so lower is better. The last table puts each prediction next to the real answer.

    with Client() as client:
        evaluation = client.evaluate(table, target, task="regression", seed=7,
                                     models=["tabicl-v2", "kumo-medium"])
        model = evaluation.fit()
    
    print(evaluation.summary()[["name", "rank", "rmse_mean", "mae_mean"]])
    features = new_rows.drop(columns=target)
    print(pd.DataFrame({"actual": new_rows[target].values, "predicted": model.predict(features)}))

What you get

Demand from the weatherAn estimate for any weather reading.
A plan for hot daysSee how demand moves with temperature.
An honest signalWeather alone explains part of demand, and the score shows how much.

Try it

Use Open with to run the research datasets notebook in Colab, Kaggle or Jupyter and search for "power consumption Tetouan", or run the code above after pip install "welt-client[parquet]".